Tuesday, June 29, 2010

2010 Emmy Predictions: The Dramas (Part 2)

Predicted Nominees:
Andre Braugher (Men of a Certain Age)
Michael Emerson (Lost)
Terry O'Quinn (Lost)
Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)
Martin Short (Damages)
John Slattery (Mad Men)

Dark Horses:
Naveen Andrews (Lost)
Tate Donovan (Damages)
Giancarlo Esposito (Breaking Bad)
Vincent Kartheiser (Mad Men)
Campbell Scott (Damages)

Not Happening:
Josh Holloway (Lost)

Again, I think Men of a Certain Age is a fat fastball in the middle of the voters' strike zone, and they've loved Andre Braugher in the past. There's no reason to think Damages won't make it three years in a row getting at least one Supporting Actor nominee, I just can't for the life of me figure if it's going to be Donovan, Short, or Scott. I'm going with Short for the whole comedian-goes-dramatic thing, but honestly none of them would shock me. Aaron Paul and John Slattery seem safe bets (and wait for my endless stumping for Aaron Paul for the win once that does happen). Emerson and O'Quinn certainly should get one last nod, but the acting nominations for Lost have come so haphazardly. The one thing they've been consistent about is that they aren't that impressed by Josh Holloway. If his stellar work last season couldn't get any love, I can't imagine this year would be any different.

Predicted Nominees:
Rose Byrne (Damages)
Christina Hendricks (Mad Men)
Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men)
Sandra Oh (Grey's Anatomy)
Chloe Sevigny (Big Love)
Chandra Wilson (Grey's Anatomy)

Dark Horses:
Christine Baranski (The Good Wife)
Ginnifer Goodwin (Big Love)
Rachel Griffiths (Brothers & Sisters)
S. Epatha Merkerson (Law & Order)
Amanda Seyfried (Big Love)

There's some wiggle room in this category, with last year's champ Cherry Jones declining to submit herself again. I can't tell whether I'm being too optimistic about Christina Hendricks or if Emmy voters -- who clearly love Mad Men -- will finally warm up to the woman behind its best loved character. She played the accordion for you people, damn it! What is it gonna take? One of these years they're going to stop nominating the Grey's Anatomy women. I have no idea if this is that year. By the way, that's no knock on Sandra Oh or Chandra Wilson; they've been the best part of that show since the beginning. Byrne seems solid to repeat a nomination, and if Elisabeth Moss was good enough to land a Lead Actress nom last year, she should do fine in Supporting this year. Chloe Sevigny is a bit of a reach, and I would not be shocked at all if Baranski got the nod instead, but it seems like this is the year everybody is realizing how award-worthy her work on that show is. As for Miss Epatha, if this were ten years ago and girlfriend was rocking a cancer storyline on Law & Order, I'd say she was a lock. It could still happen now -- it'd be a nice sendoff for Law & Order in its final season, for one thing -- but I'd be a bit surprised.

Predicted Nominees:
Andre Braugher (House)
Alan Cumming (The Good Wife)
Ted Danson (Damages)
James Earl Jones (House)
John Lithgow (Dexter)
Stephen Rea (Law & Order SVU)

Dark Horses
Keith Carradine (Dexter)
Henry Ian Cusick (Lost)
Zach Gilford (Friday Night Lights)
Joel Grey (Grey's Anatomy)
Michael O'Neill (Grey's Anatomy)
Richard Thomas (Law & Order)

Not Happening:
Jared Harris (Mad Men)

I have to say, I don't think he's going to make it happen, but the Facebook campaign on behalf of Zach Gilford is so heartfelt and motivated by nothing more than pure affection for the performance that I can't (don't want to?) completely rule it out. Again, it's an inexact science, but: Braugher and Danson are actors they love who got pretty substantial roles on their respective shows. James Earl Jones is a beloved legend who played sick in a medical drama. Rea is my blind shot at the dartboard, but somebody has to get nominated from the Law & Order franchises. Cumming seems to have been well-received on The Good Wife, and I expect they'll looooove The Good Wife. And honestly, I don't even know why we're talking about this since the category has been wrapped up and shipped Priority Mail to John Lithgow (who really should have submitted himself in the Supporting Actor category.

Predicted Nominees:
Ann-Margaret (Law & order SVU)
Tyne Daly (Burn Notice)
Christine Lahti (Law & Order SVU)
Sissy Spacek (Big Love)
Lily Tomlin (Damages)
Debra Winger (Law & Order)

Dark Horses:
Kathy Baker (Law & Order)
Alison Brie (Mad Men)
Sarah Paulson (Law & Order SVU)
Mary Kay Place (Big Love)
Maura Tierney (Rescue Me)

Not Happening
Famke Janssen (Nip/Tuck)
Elizabeth Mitchell (Lost)

The first rule of Fight Club is never underestimate Tyne Daly. She will always wag her Emmy in your face. Tomlin seems an exceedingly safe bet for Damages, given the relative heft of her role, and I am told that Debra Winger's L&O appearance was some serious Emmy-bait. As for the pair from SVU, my rationale is that Emmy loves gues performers from that show, and Lahti and Ann-Margaret are about as high-profile names as you can get from there. Maybe I'm overestimating how much attention voters will pay to Big Love, but Sissy Spacek seems like too high profile a "get" to pass up. Ellen Burstyn, another Oscar-winning film actress, was nominated for Big Love two years ago. (She also, as it happens, won last year for SVU. Thanks for being such an all-purpose example, Ellen!) Truth be told, with the exception of Sarah Paulson, I don't really have a ton of faith in those dark horses. Mary Kay Place, in particular, might as well belong with Famke and my beloved Juliet, a.k.a. women I love who don't stand a chance.


DuchessKitty said...

Excellent predictions all around Joe. I can't wait for the nominations to see how right you are.

Michael said...

I can't believe John Lithgow went Guest Actor. So the nominees (or would-be-nominees) themselves have complete control over which category they go into?

Joe Reid said...

Not complete control. Technically -- contractually -- Lithgow IS a guest actor. That's how he's billed. My guess is that a recurring player is free to move up to supporting should they choose, but they don't have to.

Tracy said...

I recall seeing a statement put out by Lithgow that he didn't want to overshadow the series regulars by submitting for supporting, not that anyone on that show really has a shot in that category, anyway. But, hey, it keeps him from taking Aaron Paul's Emmy, so I'm cool with it.