Monday, June 28, 2010

2010 Emmy Predictions: The Dramas (Part 1)

Predicted Nominees:
Breaking Bad
The Good Wife
Mad Men

Dark Horses:
Big Love
The Closer
Rescue Me

Not Happening:
True Blood

The Lost finale didn't go over well with everybody, to grossly understate the case. But I think they'll be recognized for the phenomenon if not for the show. The AMC twosome of Mad Men and Breaking Bad seem awfully secure, as do last year's nominees Dexter and House. And The Good Wife is a well-reviewed new hit show on CBS -- how does it NOT get nominated? Honestly, while I could see a pity nod for 24 or a typically myopic nod for Big Love (lord knows I wanted to like it, but that was a bad season), I have to say I think I've got the six nailed down.

Predicted Nominees:
Simon Baker (The Mentalist)
Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
Michael C. Hall (Dexter)
Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
Hugh Laurie (House)
Kiefer Sutherland (24)

Dark Horses:
Matthew Fox (Lost)
Denis Leary (Rescue Me)
Timothy Olyphant (Justified)
Bill Paxton (Big Love)
Ray Romano (Men of a Certain Age)

Not Happening:
Matt Bomer (White Collar)

I'm going for a near repeat of last year's slate, with Kiefer returning to the fold to replace the ineligible Gabriel Byrne. Not just because the Emmys often get really lazy like that but because there really isn't a whole lot of credible competition. Sure, they could finally give Matthew Fox some recognition (I've never cared for the guy, but even an ardent Jack-hater like me can admit he stepped up his game some in the final season); and sure, Paxton could benefit from whatever HBO-loyalist contingent is voting; and sure, we'd all like to think Timothy Olyphant will sexy up at red carpet as a Justified nominee. I don't see it happening, though. I would watch out for Ray Romano, a past Emmy fave whose show seems gift-wrapped for the Emmy-voting demographic. That said, I'm going for Kiefer, who was snubbed in Lead Actor last year but ended up in the miniseries category anyway. They like him.

Predicted Nominees:
Glenn Close (Damages)
Mariska Hargitay (Law & Order SVU)
Holly Hunter (Saving Grace)
January Jones (Mad Men)
Julianna Marguiles (The Good Wife)
Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer)

Dark Horses:
Sally Field (Brothers & Sisters)
Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad)
Melissa Leo (Treme)
Anna Paquin (True Blood)
Katey Sagal (Sons of Anarchy)

Not Happening:
Lauren Graham (Parenthood)

Anna Gunn and Katey Sagal are the two actresses whom critics are clamoring for. And rightly so. But I'm reminded of when critics were clamoring for Mary McDonnell and Connie Britton too, and look how that turned out. Gunn has a better chance, I think, because Breaking Bad will be present in other categories. Sagal has a tougher road to climb. Particularly when five of last year's six nominees are eligible again. Julianna Marguiles is a mortal lock to join the field, but I feel like I'm going out on too much of a limb picking January Jones to unseat Sally Field. Still, it'll be Jones before it's Lauren Graham. I love her to pieces too, but the Emmys never gave a damn when she was kicking ass on Gilmore Girls, and I don't expect them to now.

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