Friday, June 25, 2010

2010 Emmy Predictions: The Comedies (Part 2)


SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Predicted Nominees:
Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
Jon Cryer (Two and a Half Men)
Neil Patrick Harris (How I Met Your Mother)
Tracy Morgan (30 Rock)
Ed O'Neill (Modern Family)
Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family)

Dark Horses:
Ted Danson (Bored to Death)
Kevin Dillon (Entourage)
Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family)
Justin Kirk (Weeds)
Jeremy Piven (Entourage)
Rico Rodriguez (Modern Family)
Rainn Wilson (The Office)

Not Happening:

Chris Colfer (Glee)

This category is a clusterfuck in kind of a really exciting way. All of last year's nominees are eligible again, plus the show I expect to be the nomination leader among comedies has five eligible entries in the field. I couldn't be more torn. On the one hand, it took all I had not to pick four Modern Family actors to be nominated -- Burrell, O'Neill, Stonestreet, and Rodriguez (which isn't a knock on Ferguson, just thinking he's the least shiny of the four) -- but on the other hand, even with predicting only three, I'm somewhat waffling on Stonestreet. Particularly while leaving both the Entourage guys on the bench -- no way am I that lucky. It's also pretty extreme to call the Rainn Wilson snub, but A) somebody from Modern Family is getting nominated, so somebody has to go, and B) perhaps this is where The Office feels the hurt of a down season. In a weaker year, Justin Kirk (giving his best work on Weeds to date) and Ted Danson (a historical Emmy fave) would be pretty easy gets, but probably not this year. As for Colfer, even if Glee has a far stronger showing in the nomination tally than I think they will, I don't see anything coming his way. Teens do terribly with Emmy, historically, and the pleasing complexity of his character will, sadly, probably work against him.


SUPPORTING ACTRESS COMEDY SERIES
Predicted Nominees:
Jenna Fischer (The Office)
Jane Krakowski (30 Rock)
Jane Lynch (Glee)
Sofia Vergara (Modern Family)
Kristen Wiig (Saturday Night Live)
Vanessa Williams (Ugly Betty)

Dark Horses:

Julie Bowen (Modern Family)
Rosemarie DeWitt (United States of Tara)
Cheryl Hines (Curb Your Enthusiasm)
Elizabeth Perkins (Weeds)
Holland Taylor (Two and a Half Men)

Not Happening:
Eve Best (Nurse Jackie)
Merritt Wever (Nurse Jackie)

Okay, so I know it seems like Jane Lynch is just going to steamroll over everybody on her way to the trophy, and maybe she will. But if and when Sofia Vergara pulls off the upset and wins this Emmy and the next two, you heard it here first. I think she does more with the role, but I do think Emmy voters will latch onto her Funny-Talking Sassy Latina. In other news, Amy Poehler and last year's champ Kristin Chenoweth aren't eligible, and I think Elizabeth Perkins drops out after Weeds didn't know what to do with her (some more). It's actually rare for an actor to stop getting nominated and then get nominated again (ironically, it happened to Perkins last year), but I think Jenna Fischer does just that this year. Every so often I have a wildly optimistic thought that Eve Best or Merritt Wever will be recognized for their stellar work, but they won't. Hell, Rosemarie DeWitt is a pipe dream too, if I'm being honest. I'd say Bowen and Hines are the likely candidates to unseat Fischer and Wiig, if it happens.


GUEST ACTOR COMEDY SERIES
Predicted Nominees:
Matt Damon (30 Rock)
James Franco (30 Rock)
Victor Garber (Nurse Jackie)
Neil Patrick Harris (Glee)
Jerry Seinfeld (Curb Your Enthusiasm)
Fred Willard (Modern Family)

Dark Horses:

Will Arnett (30 Rock)
Harvey Fierstein (Nurse Jackie)
Jon Hamm (30 Rock)
Oliver Platt (Bored to Death)
Carl Reiner (Two and a Half Men)

Not Happening:
Mike O'Malley (Glee)

Okay, here's where I enter the realm of almost pure folly, as who the hell really knows what's going to happen here? But we know the Emmys love two things in this category especially: big stars and old favorites. Which means I'm maybe being silly by not predicting an institution like Carl Reiner. It's also fairly impossible to guess the 30 Rock contingent, except to say Jon Hamm had more to do last season. (Of course, quality has almost nothing to do with this category, so maybe he'll be back again.) I feel pretty good about Seinfeld (old favorite taking a victory lap), Willard (impeccably cast and memorable as Phil's dad), and NPH (who doesn't love him?). I'm calling Garber over Fierstein for Nurse Jackie based on star power rather than performance impact. Though if any actor is to muscle into this category on performance alone, it'll be Harvey. Unfortunately, I don't think that applies to O"Malley, much as I'd love to see that performance (and storyline) get rewarded.


GUEST ACTRESS COMEDY SERIES
Predicted Nominees:
Christine Baranski (The Big Bang Theory)
Kristin Chenoweth (Glee)
Tina Fey (Saturday Night Live)
Judith Ivey (Nurse Jackie)
Elaine Stritch (30 Rock)
Betty White (Saturday Night Live)

Dark Horses:
Elizabeth Banks (30 Rock)
Kathy Bates (The Office)
Kathryn Joosten (Desperate Housewives)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Curb Your Enthusiasm)
Julianne Moore (30 Rock)
Megan Mullally (Parks and Recreation)

Not Happening:
Kathleen Turner - Californication

This category is a smidge more predictable than the guest actors, in that Fey (last year's winner), Stritch (nominated for every 30 Rock season thus far), and Betty White (this being The Year of Our Lord Betty White) being kind of slam dunks. And Judith Ivey's performance screamed "EMMY" from the moment I saw it. Baranski seems like a good choice from a show I don't watch. And I am still waffling back and forth on Bates vs. Chenoweth, giving Cheno the edge because she won last year for Pushing Daisies.
.
.

1 comment:

Jennifer DKD said...

I'm so glad you were soooo wrong on your "Not Happening" for Chris Colfer and Mike O'Malley. Yay!