Sunday, March 09, 2008

2008 Oscar Predictions, Pt. 2: The Picks

So, like I said, if I get one or two correct in each category, that'll be about as good as I ever do on these. Here's a little secret: even the people who are really good at this kind of thing don't do much better . (These are ranked in order of most likely.)

BEST PICTURE
01 - Milk (Focus)
02 - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount)
03 - The Reader (Weinstein Co.)
04 - Defiance (Paramount Vantage)
05 - Changeling (Universal)

Next Five: Revolutionary Road (Paramount Vantage); Body of Lies (Warner Bros.); Frost/Nixon (Universal); The Argentine (Focus); Miracle at St. Anna (Disney); Australia (20th Century Fox); The Soloist (Dreamworks).

BEST DIRECTOR
01 - Gus Van Sant (Milk)
02 - David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
03 - Edward Zwick (Defiance)
04 - Fernando Mierelles (Blindness)
05 - Clint Eastwood (Changeling)

Next Five:; Stephen Daldry (The Reader); Ridley Scott (Body of Lies); Sam Mendes (Revolutionary Road); Spike Lee (Miracle at St. Anna); Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon); Steven Soderbergh (The Argentine); Baz Luhrman (Australia).


BEST ACTOR
01 - Sean Penn (Milk)
02 - Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
03 - Benicio Del Toro (The Argentine)
04 - Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road) (or Body of Lies)
05 - Daniel Craig (Defiance)

Next Five: Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button); Viggo Mortenson (Appaloosa); Ralf Feinnes (The Reader); Jamie Foxx (The Soloist); Will Smith (Seven Pounds); Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt); Hugh Jackman (Australia).


BEST ACTRESS
01 - Meryl Streep (Doubt)
02 - Kate Winslet (The Reader) (or Revolutionary Road)
03 - Angelina Jolie (Changeling)
04 - Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria)
05 - Rachel McAdams (The Lucky Ones)

Next Five: Kiera Knightley (The Duchess); Julianne Moore (Blindness); Nicole Kidman (Australia); Anne Hathaway (Dancing With Shiva); Natalie Portman (Brothers).


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
01 - Josh Brolin (Milk)
02 - Michael Sheen (Frost/Nixon)
03 - John Malkovich (Changeling)
04 - Liev Schrieber (Defiance)
05 - Ed Harris (Appaloosa)

Next Five: Jamie Bell (Defiance); Alan Alda (Nothing But The Truth / Diminished Capacity); Tobey Maguire (Brothers); Robert Downey Jr. (The Soloist); Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight); Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road).


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
01 - Amy Adams (Doubt)
02 - Viola Davis (Doubt)
03 - Kathy Bates (Revolutionary Road)
04 - Annette Bening (Dirty Tricks) (or The Women)
05 - Miranda Richardson (The Young Victoria)

Next Five: Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button);
Renee Zellweger (Appaloosa); Franka Potente (The Argentine); Helen Mirren (State of Play); Kerry Washington (Lakeview Terrace); Amy Ryan (Changeling).


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
01 - Milk (Dustin Lance Black)
02 - WALL-E (Andrew Stanton)
03 - Synecdoche, NY (Charlie Kaufman)
04 - Changeling (J. Michael Straczynski)
05 - The Lucky Ones (Neil Burger; Dirk Wittenborn)

Next Five: The Soloist (Susannah Grant); Hamlet 2 (Pam Brady; Andrew Fleming); Seven Pounds (Grant Nieporte); Nothing But The Truth (Rod Lurie); Australia (Baz Luhrman; Ronald Harwood; Stuart Beattie; Richard Flanagan).


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
01 - The Reader (David Hare)
02 - Frost/Nixon (Peter Morgan)
03 - Blindness (Don McKellar)
04 - Revolutionary Road (Justin Haythe)
05 - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Eric Roth)

Next Five: Doubt (John Patrick Shanley); Defiance (Clayton Frohman, Edward Zwick); Body of Lies (William Monahan); Appaloosa (Ed Harris; Robert Knott); Miracle at St. Anna (James McBride).


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
01 - Blindness (Cesar Charlone)
02 - Milk (Harris Savides)
03 - Defiance (Eduardo Serra)
04 - The Reader (Chris Menges)
05 - Australia (Mandy Walker)

Next Five: Miracle at St. Anna (Matthew Libatique); Appaloosa (Dean Semler); Revolutionary Road (Roger Deakins); The Dark Knight (Wally Pfister); Doubt (Roger Deakins).

6 comments:

golexis said...

Yeesh. Not to begrudge you correct predictions, but I do hope the actual list has women nominated in categories other than the ones set aside for them. But then again it is the Oscars, so probably not. Sigh.

Joe Reid said...

Yeah, it's tough when only two women have ever been nominated for Best Director ever. But take heart -- we wound up with 3/5 Original Screenplay nominees being women this past year, and only Tamara Jenkins for The Savages looked like a good bet a year ahead of time. Plus, Mandy Walker as a prospective nominee for Cinematography would be a huge deal. I can't remember the last time a female DP got nominated.

Ali Arikan said...

I think Body of Lies is a lock for a best pic nomination. But it's as arbitrary a gut feelings as one can have...

Rural Juror said...

Too much Defiance. Ed Zwick is a hack.

Otherwise, nice.

Joe Reid said...

Hack or not, he's gotten his actors three nominations in two films. And the Academy still loves WWII.

rod said...

Vera Farm iga for NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH... supporting