Sunday, February 24, 2008

Low Res Oscar Week 2008: The Predictions

BEST PICTURE
Should: No Country For Old Men
Will: No Country For Old Men
Dark horse: There Will Be Blood

Not to jinx it or anything, but I don't see anything else winning here. Of course, the last time I said that was the Brokeback Mountain year, which means There Will Be Blood will end up winning. Damn it.

BEST DIRECTOR
Should: Joel and Ethan Coen
Will: Joel and Ethan Coen
Dark Horse: Paul Thomas Anderson

This seems like an even surer thing than Best Picture.

BEST ACTOR
Should: George Clooney
Will: Daniel Day-Lewis
Dark Horse: Johnny Depp

And THIS is the surest thing of all!

BEST ACTRESS
Should: Julie Christie
Will: Marion Cotillard
Dark Horse: Julie Christie

This one's a race. Julie Christie's the best, and has been frontrunning throughout, but I have never been 100% confident in her ultimately winning. She's Sissy Spacek for In The Bedroom. Which would make Marion Cotillard the Halle Berry. Which makes TOTAL sense. Unless Ellen Page is the Adrien Brody. But Adrien Brody was a boy! Cotillard it is. She'll fulfill the annual requirement that one of the acting winners be the worst in his or her category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should: Javier Bardem
Will: Javier Bardem
Dark Horse: Hal Holbrook

I had to think for ten minutes before I remembered the other four nominees here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Should: Tilda Swinton
Will: Ruby Dee
Dark Horse: Tilda Swinton

Most competetive category of the night, with only Saoirse Ronan pretty much out of it (and even then...Anna Paquin). I can't see Blanchett winning her second Oscar for another supporting performance when clearly #2 will be a lead trophy. She's not Dianne Weist. I think it's a pretty tight three-way between Swinton (who deserves it), Ryan (who would deserve it if not for Swinton), and Ruby Dee (who doesn't deserve it but she's great nonetheless). Swinton seems too good to be true and Ryan may have peaked so: congratulations, Mother Sister!

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should: Michael Clayton
Will: Juno
Dark Horse: Michael Clayton

Did the backlash against Diablo Cody hit while the Oscar voters were filling out their ballots? Consolation prize for Tony Gilroy? If Juno does win, it'll have held off Michael Clayton by a nose.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should: Away From Her
Will: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Dark Horse: No Country For Old Men

Three-way toss-up between Diving Bell, No Country and There Will Be Blood. The theory is that the Coens can't possibly win all four awards they're up for, which I don't 100% buy, but I do buy Diving Bell being a a threat to win in pretty much every category it's up for. It's The Pianist without the Holocaust aspect (which is why I'm not picking it to win Best Director, but it'll do here).

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Should: Roger Deakins - The Assassination of Jesse James
Will: Janusz Kaminski - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Dark Horse: Robert Elswit - There Will Be Blood

Best category, talent-wise, on the ballot. No win would be unworthy. Kaminski's is the showiest, though, and that's usually good enough.

BEST ART DIRECTION
Should: Sweeney Todd
Will: There Will Be Blood
Dark Horse: Atonement

I have no idea. The art direction on Blood is good but doesn't seem to be to the Academy's taste. But neither does the film as a whole and they nominated it eight times, so what do I know?

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Should: Atonement
Will: Atonement
Dark Horse: Elizabeth: The Golden Age

I would kind of love to see Elizabeth win here if only because: hilarious. Best=most, remember.

BEST EDITING
Should: No Country For Old Men
Will: No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: The Bourne Ultimatum

"Roderick Jaynes," the editor for No Country, is, as you probably know, a pseudonym for the Coen Brothers. I'm betting the Academy doesn't know that. So there goes that whole "don't want to give the Coens too many awards" argument.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Should: Dario Marianelli - Atonement
Will: Dario Marianelli - Atonement
Dark Horse: Michael Giacchino - Ratatouille

Marianelli wins almost by default in this uninspired category. Though things hardly go the way you think they will in Best Score lately.


And the rest...

Best Sound Mixing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Best Sound Effects Editing: Transformers
Best Visual Effects: Transformers
Best Makeup: La Vie En Rose
Best Song: Enchanted - "That's How You Know"
Best Animated Short - Peter & The Wolf
Best Live Action Short: Il Supplente
Best Documentary Short: Sari's Mother
Best Documentary Feature: No End In Sight
Best Foreign Film: Counterfeiters
Best Animated Feature: Ratatouille

7 comments:

mootpoint said...

I still think Julian Schnabel's got an outside shot. He did win the Golden Globe and "The Diving Bell" isn't going to win in any categories (except maybe cinematography because of best=most, which this time I'm actually okay with).

patty m. said...

Post-show now, and I'm just so happy that Once won best song. The acceptance speeches had me in tears. Well done, Academy!

Sars said...

I wish Diving Bell had won something -- anything. I just adored that movie and I wanted it to get more attention.

Jennifer said...

So happy about Once - the first thing I thought of this morning was coming here to see your reaction!

Joe Reid said...

Looks like I went 12/24, with 5 of my dark horses winning when I got it wrong. Which is pretty much exactly how I did last year (12/24 with 4 dark horses). But I'm way more pleased with the actual results this year, Marion Cotillard notwithstanding. TILDA SWINTON! TALKING ABOUT BAT NIPPLES! Sweet.

StickyKeys said...

It's been like 12 hours Joer! Where are the results!

/forgot to watch.

Joe Reid said...

Yeah, I was up until 5 AM formatting a liveblog and now my wireless has gone kerflooey, so it might be a bit yet. Can I interest you in something called the IMDb, though?