Monday, January 21, 2008

Final Oscar Predictions

Well, here we go again. I'm never better than "pretty decent" at these things, so don't go by me, but I need to go on the record about this sort of thing. I'd originally planned on getting my own movie "awards" up on the blog by this point, but I'm just not ready, so look for them during the week leading up to the Oscar ceremony next month.

EDIT: It's taking all my willpower right now not to adjust these all so that American Gangster shows up in Best Picture, Actor, and Screenplay.

Best Picture
01 - No Country For Old Men
02 - Into The Wild
03 - Michael Clayton
04 - Juno
05 - The Diving Bell And The Butterfly

alternate.: Atonement
from left field: Hairspray

So, yeah, I'm predicting There Will Be Blood gets the big snub on Tuesday morning. At which point the entire internet will melt down and those fanboys who all think they're above caring about the Oscars will start wandering up and down their streets, muttering to themselves about how bullshit this all is. I just hope to God Atonement isn't the film to unseat it, because I will never hear the end of it. But seriously: I'm not saying this because I hate the movie (I don't); I just can't see the old fuddy-duddy Academy signing onto Anderson's outré vision. And honestly, when was the last time all the most critically acclaimed movies made the Oscar shortlist?

Best Director
01 - The Coen Brothers -- No Country For Old Men
02 - Sean Penn -- Into The Wild
03 - Paul Thomas Anderson -- There Will Be Blood
04 - Julian Schnabel -- The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
05 - Tony Gilroy -- Michael Clayton

alternate: Tim Burton -- Sweeney Todd
from left field: Andrew Dominik -- The Assassination Of Jesse James

This feels about right. The directors have always been one to go where the Academy at large won't. Though I have to say I'm hoping they pull one of their really out-of-left-field choices like Mike Leigh for Vera Drake in 2004. Dominik for Jesse James or Todd Haynes for I'm Not There or Ang Lee for Lust, Caution. Or, oh my God, Paul Greengrass for The Bourne Ultimatum! Dude!

Best Actor
01 - Daniel Day Lewis -- There Will Be Blood
02 - George Clooney -- Michael Clayton
03 - Viggo Mortenson -- Eastern Promises
04 - Emile Hirsch -- Into The Wild
05 - Johnny Depp -- Sweeney Todd

alternate: Ryan Gosling -- Lars And The Real Girl
from left field: Tommy Lee Jones -- In The Valley Of Elah

It's weird, because Hirsch and Depp (and even Viggo) seem totally vulnerable, but I don't feel any better about Gosling or James McAvoy or any of the other left-fielders.

Best Actress
01 - Julie Christie -- Away From Her
02 - Marion Cotillard -- La Vie En Rose
03 - Ellen Page -- Juno
04 - Angelina Jolie -- A Mighty Heart
05 - Amy Adams -- Enchanted

alternate: Kiera Knightley -- Atonement
from left field: Jodie Foster -- The Brave One

It's that fifth spot that's a motherfucker right here. I'm totally predicting with my heart that the delightful Amy Adams nabs her second nomination in three years. But I don't feel all that bad since everybody else sees to be doing the same thing only with Laura Linney. Anyone but Cate Blanchett in The Golden Age, I guess.

Best Supporting Actor
01 - Javier Bardem -- No Country For Old Men
02 - Casey Affleck -- The Assassination of Jesse James
03 - Tom Wilksinson -- Michael Clayton
04 - Hal Holbrook -- Into The Wild
05 - Phillip Seymour Hoffman -- Charlie Wilson's War

alternate: Tommy Lee Jones -- No Country For Old Men
from left field: Max Von Sydow -- The Diving Bell And The Butterfly

This category has seemed pretty secure for a while now. Watch, then, as this becomes Upset Central come Tuesday. But I really don't think so. Tommy Lee Jones, though phenomenal, seems like that perfect Cheadle-in-Crash, Macy-in-Seabiscuit co-star nomination that SAG likes to give out and AMPAS likes to ignore. If PSH hadn't just won the Oscar a few years ago, I'd say he'd be vulnerable to a Von Sydow sneak attack, but AMPAS has lately started to toss follow-up nominations to former winners so they won't seem like flashes in the pan.

Best Supporting Actress
01 - Amy Ryan -- Gone Baby Gone
02 - Cate Blanchett -- I'm Not There
03 - Tilda Swinton -- Michael Clayton
04 - Saoirse Ronan -- Atonement
05 - Ruby Dee -- American Gangster

alternate: Catherine Keener -- Into The Wild
from left field: Kelly MacDonald -- No Country For Old Men

Lots of competition for those final two slots, even among those who haven't shown up anywhere else. I see no reason why love for their respective films couldn't sweep Jennifer Garner or Kelly MacDonald onto the short list. But I think I'm betting on Oscar to toss nominations to the little girl and the old woman. And honestly, if Ruby Dee gets the nomination, watch her win this bitch.

Best Original Screenplay
01 - Juno (Diablo Cody)
02 - Michael Clayton (Tony Gilroy)
03 - Ratatouille (Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava)
04 - The Savages (Tamara Jenkins)
05 - Lars and the Real Girl (Nancy Oliver)

alternate: Knocked Up (Judd Apatow)
from left field: I'm Not There (Todd Haynes)

The Savages looked super-weak for a while, but after a WGA nomination, it looks safe. Knocked Up isn't nearly as widely beloved as The 40-Year-Old Virgin, and that couldn't make it either.

Best Adapted Screenplay
01 - No Country For Old Men (Joel and Ethan Coen)
02 - The Diving Bell And The Butterfly (Ronald Harwood)
03 - There Will Be Blood (Paul Thomas Anderson)
04 - Into The Wild (Sean Penn)
05 - Zodiac (James Vanderbilt)

alternate: Atonement (Christopher Hampton)
from left field: Away From Her (Sarah Polley)

This is a strong damn category, right here. Zodiac got the WGA nomination and I'm really hoping it can hold on for an Oscar nomination, because those other four ain't going nowhere. Which is too bad because Hampton and Polley both really deserve to make it too.

Best Cinematography
01 - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Janusz Kaminski)
02 - No Country For Old Men (Roger Deakins)
03 - There Will Be Blood (Robert Elswit)
04 - The Assassination of Jesse James... (Roger Deakins)
05 - Into The Wild (Eric Gautier)

alternate: Atonement (Seamus McGarvey)
from left field: Across The Universe (Bruno Delbonnel)

I'm clearly being overly optimistic in marking down for double Roger Deakins nods. Not to worry, though, as I'll balance things out by both achievements getting beaten out for the trophy by Kaminski.


NYOne said...

Ok, I'll be checking these against E! Online tomorrow afternoon. I love waking up early for the nomination announcements and I'm having my annual Oscar party whether or not the actual awards show happens, but the threat of no actual ceremony is definitely putting a cloud over what is normally my favorite time of year.
And totally unrelated, but at jury duty on Fri, they called attendance for a Joseph Reid. If I didn’t know that you just served in Buffalo, I would have been looking around to say hello.

adam k. said...

I really don't know what to leave out among those 6 cinematography hopefuls. Will Atonement REALLY miss? And if not it, then what? And that's even without Lust Caution...

Joe Reid said...

NYOne: Nope, no jury duty for me this year. Funny, though!

Adam: I wonder if I'm being too optimistic with the double Deakins nods. It's really a stacked field with a ton of plausible dark horses (Delbonnel has been sticking in my mind all year as a kind of Passion of the Christ shocker).

Joe Reid said...

In fact, I could stick with Kaminski (the one real lock) and choose four others and have that just as likely: Kaminski, McGarvey, Delbonnel, Rogrigo Prieto, and Harris Savides (for either Zodiac or American Gangster). It's wild. This category has been bizarre in recent years.

Kamikaze Camel said...

The big thing with Gautier's Into the Wild cinematography is that, while it's all beautiful vistas and mountaintops and stuff like that it's not excessively pretty. It's not like Cold Mountain or something like that. It's quite cold and remote and that's why I don't think he'll be nominated. Like, he just aimed the camera and shot, he didn't do anything special with it.

Or maybe that's just my crazy theory.

Joe Reid said...

I could certainly be the one who's out to lunch there, but as soon as I saw that movie, with the big Alaskan mountains and pine trees and nature, I thought for sure it'd get nominated. And the whole movie is about how pretty nature is, so if they dig the movie (I expect they will), they'll dig that most of all. And I actually did think it was pretty decent lensing.

bill k. said...

hahahha damn were your best picture nomination wrong lol

Joe Reid said...

No shit, dude. I guess I'll have to wait til next year to win that special internet gold star. You, however, will be getting your gold star for First There Will Be Blood Fanatic To Post A Typo-Ridden "Told You So" Comment. It's a big star.

Anonymous said...

I'm Atonement fan... but still you SUCK :P