Monday, December 11, 2006

Golden Globes Predictions

I was going to post something about the New York and L.A. film critics awards, but honestly so little happened, it's barely worth it. As is generally the case, things get a lot less interesting by the time the third and fourth major critics groups start handing out awards, as it tends to be the same names over and over again. Not that I'm not thrilled for Helen Mirren, Forest Whitaker, because they're awesome. Anyway, there are a few Oscar-related notes we can take from this:

-- United 93 is absolutely in the race for Best Picture/Director nominations. I just saw it on DVD and it was INTENSE. I would not be disappointed at all to see it get some recognition.

-- Supporting Actor has been all over the map. And none of the marquee names (Brad Pitt; Jack Nicholson) have shown up at all.

-- Very surprised to see Jennifer Hudson getting so much notice here. That being said, it actually keeps the Supporting Actress Oscar race even more wide open, as Hudson was already lock-ish anyway. Four spots remain rather wide-open, and will remain so until the Golden Globe nominations.

Speaking of which, here's my best guess at Wednesday's Golden Globe nominations. A few of these categories are near-total shots in the dark at the moment. And given the Globes' penchant for more than 5 noms per category, I'm giving myself some breating room in the guise of an alternate.

**It should be noted that the category placements are weird and inconsistent, but Letters From Iwo Jima is (I believe) ineligible for Best Drama because it's a foreign-language film. But it's eligible for everything else. [couple edits based on category placement -- seems Michael Sheen and Catherine O'Hara are going Lead. Shame, since that knocks Sheen out of a nomination, I think.)

GOLDEN GLOBES PREDICTIONS

Best Picture - Drama
01 - The Queen
02 - The Departed
03 - Flags Of Our Fathers
04 - United 93
05 - Babel
alt.: World Trade Center

Best Picture - Musical/Comedy
01 - Dreamgirls
02 - Little Miss Sunshine
03 - Borat
04 - The Devil Wears Prada
05 - A Prairie Home Companion
alt.: Thank You For Smoking

Best Director
01 - Clint Eastwood - Letters From Iwo Jima
02 - Martin Scorsese - The Departed
03 - Bill Condon - Dreamgirls
04 - Stephen Frears - The Queen
05 - Paul Greengrass - United 93
alt.: Robert Altman - A Prairie Home Companion

Best Actor - Drama
01 - Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland
02 - Peter O'Toole - Venus
03 - Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness
04 - Leonardo DiCaprio - The Departed
05 - Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
alt.: Ken Watanabe - Letters From Iwo Jima

Best Actress - Drama
01 - Helen Mirren - The Queen
02 - Judi Dench - Notes on a Scandal
03 - Penelope Cruz - Volver
04 - Kate Winslet - Little Children
05 - Naomi Watts - The Painted Veil
alt.: Maggie Gyllenhaal - Sherrybaby

Best Actor - Musical/Comedy
01 - Sacha Baron Cohen - Borat
02 - Aaron Eckhart - Thank You For Smoking
03 - Johnny Depp - Pirates of the Caribbean 2
04 - Jamie Foxx - Dreamgirls
05 - Will Ferrell - Stranger Than Fiction
alt.: Greg Kinnear - Little Miss Sunshine

Best Actress - Musical/Comedy
01 - Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada
02 - Annette Bening - Running With Scissors
03 - Beyonce Knowles - Dreamgirls
04 - Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
05 - Catherine O'Hara - For Your Consideration
alt.: Renee Zellweger - Miss Potter


Best Supporting Actor
01 - Jack Nicholson - The Departed
02 - Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls
03 - Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
04 - Brad Pitt - Babel
05 - Djimon Honsou - Blood Diamond
alt.: Mark Wahlberg - The Departed

Best Supporting Actress
01 - Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
02 - Cate Blanchett - Notes On A Scandal
03 - Adriana Barazza - Babel
04 - Maggie Gyllenhaal - World Trade Center
05 - Emily Blunt - The Devil Wears Prada
alt.: Emma Thompson - Stranger Than Fiction

Best Screenplay
01 - The Queen
02 - Little Miss Sunshine
03 - Babel
04 - The Departed
05 - Notes On A Scandal
alt.: Half Nelson

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