Oscar Predictions

They're tomorrow! I like to be right! (listed in order of likelihood)

BEST PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
The Help
Midnight in Paris
Girl with Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball

[Next most likely: The Tree of Life, War Horse]

BEST DIRECTOR
Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist
Martin Scorsese - Hugo
Alexander Payne - The Descendants
Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life
Tate Taylor - The Help

[Next most likely: David Fincher (Dragon Tattoo), Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris), Steven Spielberg (War Horse)]

BEST ACTRESS
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Viola Davis - The Help
Michelle Williams - My Week With Marilyn
Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
Rooney Mara - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

[Next most likely: Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin), Charlize Theron (Young Adult), Kristen Wiig (Bridesmaids)]

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney - The Descendants
Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Brad Pitt - Moneyball
Michael Fassbender - Shame
Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar

[Next most likely: Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March), Michael Shannon (Take Shelter), Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)]

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Octavia Spencer - The Help
Shailene Woodley - The Descendants
Jessica Chastain - The Help
Bérénice Bejo - The Artist
Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs

[Next most likely: Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)]

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Albert Brooks - Drive
Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn
Brad Pitt - The Tree of Life
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Moneyball

[Next most likely: Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Armie Hammer (J. Edgar), Corey Stoll (Midnight in Paris), Nick Nolte (Warrior), Viggo Mortenson (A Dangerous Method)]

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
50/50

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Descendants
Moneyball
The Help
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
The Ides of March

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Hugo
The Tree of Life
The Artist
Girl with Dragon Tattoo
Drive

BEST COSTUMES
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
The Artist
Hugo
My Week with Marilyn
Albert Nobbs

BEST ART DIRECTION
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
The Artist
War Horse
Girl with Dragon Tattoo

BEST FOREIGN FILM
A Separation
Pina
Footnote
In Darkness
Monsieur Lazhar

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Adventures of Tintin
Rango
Puss in Boots
Rio
Happy Feet 2

BEST EDITING
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
Moneyball
Drive

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Artist
Girl with Dragon Tattoo
War Horse
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Jane Eyre

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Hugo
Rise of Planet of Apes
Harry Potter
Mission: Impossible - GP
Captain America

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Project Nim
Bill Cunningham NY
Paradise Lost 3
Semper Fi
We Were Here

BEST SOUND MIXING
Harry Potter
Mission: Impossible
Super 8
Hugo
Hanna

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
Mission: Impossible - GP
Super 8
Rise of Planet of Apes
Hugo
Drive

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"The Living Proof" - The Help
"Man or Muppet" - The Muppets
"Lay Your Head Down" - Albert Nobbs
"Life's a Happy Song" - The Muppets
"Gathering Stories" - We Bought a Zoo

BEST MAKEUP
Harry Potter
The Iron Lady
The Artist
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Buzzed

This Had Oscar Buzz

I'm doing a dumb thing on Tumblr that you might like.
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Carnage Cast Power Rankings

It was pretty much impossible for me to come away from Carnage with a clean opinion, since I was so constantly preoccupied with comparing the performances in the film to the cast of the play. This isn't the movie's fault exactly (though I still don't see why at least Marcia Gay Harden and Jeff Daniels couldn't reprise their roles -- it's not like you're selling tickets on the star power of your cast, mostly because you're not selling tickets, this is playing in like three cities!), but regardless of blame, I just couldn't lose myself in the movie, as funny (and frustrating) as it is. [Also distracting? Trying to figure out where in Brooklyn this is taking place by the view outside the windows -- but they filmed this in Paris, right?]

So the best I can do is judge the four main cast members of Carnage based on how well they pulled off their characters, both on their own and relative to the original Broadway cast that I saw.

1. Kate Winslet: Can't remember which of my friends to credit this observation to, but it's so true: Kate Winslet plays a great drunk. She's so entertaining! She gets exactly the right comedic tone and nails her character's shift from meek to vicious.I thought Hope Davis was great on Broadway, but Winslet manages to be the film's only performer to solidly best her predecessor.

2. Christoph Waltz: He plays this part almost exactly the same as the Nazi he played in Inglorious Basterds, only with more disdain and less giggling. Which is deeply weird but makes for some fun moments. I also don't know WHAT he's supposed to be doing with that accent of his -- is it supposed to be gone? Because it's not. And as a result, it sounds like he's taking the time to thoroughly chew his words until they're mashed up enough to escape his mouth. He's funny, but he comes across like a total alien, and more often than not, I really wanted to see Jeff Daniels back in the role.

3. John C. Reilly: Here's the thing about God of Carnage, at least in its original Broadway incarnation: James Gandolfini was kind of not great. Don't get me wrong, he really had his moments. But the one thing Reilly's performance shows is that Michael is supposed to come off as a realistically shlubby Dad type before he goes all macho-rage-monster. Gandolfini really nailed the latter part, obvs. Reilly manages to nail the former part, equally obvs, but I don't for a second buy him as an angry caveman type. Casting an actor who could hit both those notes within the same performance would have been great.

4. Jodie Foster: Oh, girl. Look, I like Jodie Foster a lot, even if that like is running on Clarice Starling fumes. And to be honest, she was behind the 8-ball from the moment she was cast, because I absolutely adored Marcia Gay Harden in this role, and I'm really mad she's not up there on the big screen nailing it again. But even giving Jodie the benefit of the doubt ... she's not good. Harden played her as a self-righteous lunatic, sure, but she had modulation. Heart. A realistic sense of personhood. Jodie plays her as a punchline from start to end. Bummed me out.

5. "Alexander": He's not in the play, but damned if that kid can't swing a stick like he means business.
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We Need to Talk About Annie

So apparently it took me until 2012 to realize that there is some kind of soul-twin, spirit-animal, cosmic connection between Tilda Swinton and Annie Lennox. I mean, the androgyny, the continental weirdness -- Tilda basically played her angel Gabriel in Constantine AS Annie Lennox, for Pete's sake. But, whatever, better late than never. (This was also the weekend for me to discover that Annie wrote and recorded the Whitney Houston song "Step By Step." Yes, from The Preacher's Wife. I've never felt like more of a failure.)

But as I was walking around the other day, listening to my iPod, it dawned on me that "Why" is secretly a 20-year premonition of Tilda's character in We Need to Talk About Kevin! Well, it COULD happen! She's looking back, interpreting everything as darkly as possible, "this is the fear / this is the dread / these are the contents of my head," I mean COME ON.

Anyway, I was discussing this connection with Nick, and it was late, and my brain was squishy and open to suggestion, and I had PhotoShop and Spotify open at the same time, and so what resulted was this series of images marrying Tilda's various roles with Annie's various hit songs, and it was really entertaining to me when I was doing this at two in the morning so I hope you like it.

(Click to view full-size images -- Blogger is crap for image space.)

(Like I said, Annie Lennox wrote and recorded "Step By Step." I know!)

(above courtesy Nick Davis)

(above courtesy Nick Davis)

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Ten Bullet Points on Albert Nobbs That You Probably Shouldn't Read Until You've Seen It

...Although Seriously, Spoilers Aren't Going to "Ruin" It So Come On.

01 -I cannot believe this movie was based on a play that was performed thirty years ago (that was itself based on a short story) and then worked on by Glenn Close forever until it finally made it to the screen. A movie this raggedy, this narratively scattershot, this fundamentally unsure of what story it wants to tell feels like it was thrown together in about three months. Even the Sinead O'Connor song sounds like she just started humming the melody and threw in some words here and there as she thought of them.

02 - That said, the performances by Glenn Close and Janet McTeer are ... if not necessarily worth it, at least worth giving credit to. McTeer is especially great at playing her character's exasperation and eventual fondness for Albert.

03 - Albert Nobbs doesn't know WHAT the fuck he wants. I mean, okay, he wants to own a tobacco shop, obviously, because every three seconds he's either whispering to himself "Twenty more pounds til I can buy that tobacco shop, which is my dream," or else hallucinating his name on the sign above the shop door. But like...does he want to marry Mia Wasikowska? Does he want to run on the beach in pretty dresses and finally live as a woman? Does he want to co-habitate with Janet McTeer out of pure convenience? The movie doesn't know. And, okay, maybe the point is that Albert is forever confused and reticent and unwilling to take the confident steps forward to live a life. But a fundamentally unsure and confused character who never progresses beyond that does not make for a great protagonist.

04 - Mia Wasikowska's character was similarly at sea. (Part of this observation goes to Nick Davis, who was there to commiserate on this movie with me.) She starts off as this sass-mouthed little firecracker, then comes into contact with the strapping Irish cock of Aaron Johnson, upon which time she morphs into something of a cross between Jenny Everdeen and Lily St. Regis, and then she finally downshifts into a pale, whiny thing who beats at Albert with her sad wrists in the least convincing angry outburst I have ever seen.


05 - Speaking of Aaron Johnson, he is sporting some extremely anachronistic abs in one scene (and thank God for it), not to mention how the costume department sized his sleeves like three sizes too small.

06 - Okay, so the costumers. I could absolutely see them getting Oscar nominated -- similar to how I think J. Edgar could get a Makeup nomination -- because the clothes, and costuming in general, are so integral to the plot. But, real talk, it's some seriously crappy work. What, Nobbs couldn't find a pair of pants that didn't accentuate his womanly hips? Meanwhile, McTeer is stuffed full of so much padding to offset her GIANT HOOTS that she looks like she's preparing to play Santa Claus for the (typhoid-stricken) children. Mark said she looked like one of those self-defense-class instructors who put on padded suits so the ladies can practice defensive maneuvers. Or like training police dogs or something.


07 - AND THEN we get to the part where Nobbs and Janet McTeer put on a pair of dresses and it's the single funniest moment I have seen in a movie this year (sorry, Melissa McCarthy and the puppy van), and you almost think that there's been a method to the costumers' madness this whole time because the obvious discomfort these two women are feeling is perfectly matched by these hideous dresses. But none of the rest of the movie has properly prepared for this kind of sight gag, so it all seems like an unintentional moment of hilarity. But seriously: Janet McTeer's Linebacker Shoulders for Best Visual Effect of 2011.

08 - Did I mention Janet McTeer's GIANT HOOTS? When this movie gets on DVD, remind me to post about this part again. There are Fonzerelli thumbs and everything. AND THEN, in that scene where they're in dresses, THAT'S when she decides to strap the ladies down underneath a girdle??

09 - Brenda Fricker is in this movie. Her name is right up front in the opening credits and everything. And I kept looking for her -- Academy Award-winner Brenda Fricker! (And you just KNOW that burns Glenn Close right up!) So Mark keeps trying to tell me that Pauline Collins is actually Brenda Fricker, and I'm like "Not unless she's had three Jennifer Grey surgeries," but we kept looking and looking and wondering if maybe she was going to cameo at the end as Albert's mother or something and then we realized she was there THE WHOLE TIME as the zaftig cook who doesn't get to say much of anything until the end. She was hiding in plain sight the whole time, and it made me wonder how many other movies Brenda Fricker has been in where I just never recognized her. (Super 8? Friends with Benefits? Page One: Inside the New York Times?)

10 - You should see this movie, but don't expect it to be very good. But do expect it to be a good deal freakier than you expected. Jonathan Rhys-Meyers wants a key to his adjoining room, y'all, and he's up to exactly what you hope he's up to.
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Thought I Was Over the Bridge Now

Okay, two months since my last post and I'm sick and tired of looking at that damned Melancholia photo. My infidelity with Tumblr has gotten severe, and I have to figure out a way soon to merge these two universes so I can get back to posting on the (semi-)regular. Be prepared -- what follows is meandering and indulgent, but it's something.



I'm posting tonight because I'm still buzzing from seeing my beloved Tori Amos at the Beacon Theater tonight with my awesome pal Jason. My sixth time in the 15 years I've been listening to her. And allowing for nostalgia making things even better in the rearview, I still think this might be the best show of hers I've seen. The gimmick on her current CD -- Night of Hunters -- is that they're all orchestral arrangement, so for the tour she's brought a four-piece string section to accompany her. This means all new lush arrangements for a lot of her old songs, and the reinvigoration of this classic material is as evident as it was back in 1998 when her first tour with a backing band led her to beef up the arrangements on songs from her first three albums.

Of the (approx.) 22 songs Tori performed tonight, I'd only previously seen her perform four, and it's not like she overloaded the set with new stuff either (though I should say that the Night of Hunters songs she did play were quite beautiful, as were songs from her more recent albums that I'm not as familiar with, like Maybe California and Toast). Every time I go to a Tori show, I have a little mental checklist of stuff I've never heard live that I'd love to hear. It's a wish list that's rarely fulfilled. But tonight, I actually got THREE: "Siren" (sparklingly arranged with the strings), "Putting the Damage On" (performed solo and just as aching as the Boys for Pele version), and "Gold Dust," which A) NEVER gets played, and B) somewhat curiously was performed solo despite the fact that the Scarlett's Walk version is loaded with strings, but C) WHATEVER, it was amazing.

(As for "Cloud on my Tongue," the above embedded performance, this was another first-timer for me, and I always seem to forget how emotional that song makes me. The bridge, from which I cribbed this post title, sneaks up on me.)

I really needed this show. The last time I saw Tori -- two years ago at Radio City -- was maybe my least favorite concert of hers. The setlist felt overly familiar, and her performance style had started to feel indulgent. But one great show can put the wind back in your sails, and that's exactly what Tori did tonight. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to crawl up inside my Spotify lists for a while.
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MELANCHOLIA (Von Trier, B-)

Going to try to be better about putting up quick-hitter movie reviews as I maneuver through the fall season. Wish me luck.


Melancholia
2011, Lars Von Trier

As if it were even a question, Melancholia removes any doubt: Lars Von Trier is totally an "I don't even own a television" person. The infuriating thing about LVT is that he can make a damn movie. The thing looks like a million bucks at all times (self-consciously so, but whatever), and you will definitely see some images that you've never seen in a movie before, so credit where it's due. I don't think he rewards his actors very well (Kirsten Dunst is impressive but loathsome; Gainsbourg is affecting but pathetic), but he gives them a lot to do.

But God damn, does his smug, miserablist worldview weigh heavily on anything he does. It just crushes everything in its path. In Antichrist, that crushing, self-promotional nihilism was laughable. I mean, "chaos reigns"? Try to stay angry at something that dumb. In Melancholia, the effect is simultaneously insulting and exhausting as LVT is constantly trying to shove the end of the world in your face.

And it's so incredibly insular! No televisions, as I mentioned. No newspapers. All information gleaned from "what the scientists are saying" or else the odd Google search that turns up these sad 1998-looking one-sheets foretelling interplanetary doom. Which I guess is the point. This is a movie about the world ending, only "the world" according to Von Trier is small enough to fit on a postage stamp.

Random observations:

-- The first half of the movie takes place at a wedding reception and was constantly reminding me of my beloved Rachel Getting Married. Only replace all the scenes of world-music jamming in RGM with close-up shots of Kirsten Dunst's sad face and you've got it.

-- I suppose I should not be surprised by this, but I was kind of blown away by how big Kirsten Dunst's boobs are. For some reason, she never really came across as a booby girl to me. Maybe because she's so skinny? Though I was reminded after the movie about Spider-Man, which, yes, they did look pretty big in this movie. Anyway, obviously LVT makes her get naked.

-- Kirsten's character is loathsome throughout, but she lost me early on. Anybody who declines the invitation to spend her wedding night atop a ready and willing Alexander Skarsgard has lost all my sympathy.

-- In case you were curious, LVT's recommendations for the inevitable end of the world: don't bother with optimism or finding a moment to appreciate the beauty of the universe. Better to just feel incredibly smug that your constant, self-obsessed depression now appears to be prophetic.

-- Charlotte Gainsbourg has the face of a ghoul.

-- Brady Corbett is the male equivalent of Jennifer Ehle, for me. I've seen him in a billion things, and every time I see him in a new thing, it takes me half the movie to figure out who he is. (See also: Mark Strong.)
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